Timely Insights and Key Industry Changes
Hi, it’s Faiz from Maalbardaar.
After last week’s focus on Hormuz risk, freight costs, and budget uncertainty, this week’s supply chain story is mostly about the FY27 budget, lower fuel prices, stronger reserves, and cautious movement through the Strait of Hormuz.
There is some relief for businesses. Petrol and diesel prices have both come down. SBP reserves have improved, and Karachi Port has crossed an important vessel-calls milestone.
But businesses still need to stay careful. The new budget may affect taxes, petroleum levies, customs duties, and import costs. At the same time, shipping companies are still watching the Strait of Hormuz closely, even after signs of improvement.
For importers and exporters, the message is simple:
Review your landed cost, check your customs exposure, and do not confirm shipments without updated freight and tax calculations.
The Current Situation: Budget Changes Put Landed Cost Back in Focus
Pakistan has proposed its FY2026–27 federal budget, with total spending of Rs 18.77 trillion, according to Reuters.
The budget is designed to keep the country aligned with IMF targets while increasing tax revenue and controlling spending. For supply chains, the most important point is that budget decisions can directly affect the final cost of imported and exported goods.
Businesses now need to review customs duties, additional customs duties, regulatory duties, petroleum levies, import taxes, and sales tax exposure. Financing conditions and exchange rate movement should also be watched closely.
The Reality:
The budget gives some relief through tariff rationalisation, especially for selected industrial inputs. But it also keeps pressure on formal businesses because the government needs higher revenue.
Importers and exporters should not rely on old landed cost assumptions. Every shipment should be recalculated based on the new budget direction.
Key Updates:
1. FY27 Budget Targets Higher Revenue and IMF Stability
Pakistan’s proposed FY27 budget has a total size of Rs 18.77 trillion. Reuters reported that the government has targeted tax revenue of Rs 15.26 trillion while keeping the IMF programme on track.
For businesses, this means freight cost is only one part of the picture. The final cost of cargo may also change because of taxes, levies, duties, and compliance requirements.
The budget also keeps petroleum levies in focus. This matters because fuel-related costs can affect trucking, container movement, port-to-warehouse transport, and inland distribution.
Why It Matters:
Importers and exporters should review pricing before confirming shipments. Even if freight rates stay stable, taxes and levies can still change the total landed cost.
2. Customs Duty Rates Lowered on Industrial Inputs
The government has proposed customs duty reductions on 92 tariff lines used by different industrial sectors, according to Business Recorder.
The same report says the budget also includes reductions in additional customs duty and regulatory duty across several tariff lines. The goal is to lower production costs, simplify the tariff structure, and improve trade facilitation.
This can help some importers reduce costs on selected raw materials, machinery, or industrial inputs. But each product still needs to be reviewed separately.
Why It Matters:
A lower duty on one tariff line does not mean every shipment becomes cheaper. Importers should check HS codes, customs classification, duty rates, sales tax impact, and final landed cost before placing orders.
3. SBP Reserves Improve Again
According to the State Bank of Pakistan, SBP-held reserves stood at $17.215 billion as of 5 June 2026. Commercial bank reserves stood at $5.456 billion, bringing total liquid foreign exchange reserves to $22.672 billion.
Stronger reserves are positive for trade confidence. They support import payments, LC confidence, fuel purchases, LNG procurement, shipping payments, and exchange rate stability.
Why It Matters:
This is a good signal for importers, but businesses should still plan carefully. Pakistan’s external payments, fuel needs, and import bill remain sensitive to global energy prices and policy changes.
4. Hormuz Movement Improves, but Shippers Stay Cautious
Reuters reported that one LNG tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz after the United States and Iran agreed to a deal, but shippers are still cautious. Many shipowners are waiting for more clarity on safety, mine clearance, and normal vessel movement.
This matters because the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical route for oil and LNG movement. Any disruption can quickly affect fuel prices, freight rates, insurance costs, vessel schedules, and industrial energy costs.
Why It Matters:
The situation is improving, but the risk has not fully disappeared. Importers and exporters should keep monitoring vessel schedules and freight updates before confirming shipment timelines.
5. Karachi Port Crosses 2,000 Vessel Calls
Karachi Port crossed 2,000 vessel calls for the first time in nearly eight years, according to Karachi Port Trust.
The port handled 2,003 ship calls between July 2025 and June 13, 2026. This shows stronger maritime activity and confirms Karachi Port’s importance as Pakistan’s main trade gateway.
Why It Matters:
This is a positive sign for Pakistan’s maritime economy. It shows stronger port activity and greater use of port infrastructure.
For businesses, active ports are useful, but cargo movement still depends on customs readiness, documentation, inland transport, and delivery coordination.
What This Means for Importers and Exporters
This week gives businesses some relief, but not complete stability.
Reserves have improved and some customs duties are being reduced. Karachi Port activity is also showing strength.
But the FY27 budget, petroleum levy targets, customs changes, and Hormuz shipping risk still require careful planning.
Importers and exporters should recheck their landed cost after the budget changes. They should also review HS codes, customs classifications, inland freight, vessel schedules, insurance costs, and documentation before cargo arrives.
Your landed cost should include freight, fuel surcharges, insurance, customs duties, additional customs duties, regulatory duties, sales tax, exchange rate impact, port charges, customs clearance, inland transportation, and any delay or warehousing costs.
The key lesson is simple:
Do not wait for cargo arrival to calculate your cost.
Calculate it before booking, review it after budget changes, and keep checking freight updates until delivery is complete.
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