Hi, it’s Faiz from Maalbardaar.
After last week’s focus on Karachi Port investment, Finance Act changes, and monsoon planning, this week’s supply chain story is shifting back to Pakistan’s trade pressure.
The latest FY26 trade numbers show that Pakistan’s trade deficit has reached a four-year high.
Imports increased, exports fell, and June showed a sharp monthly jump in the trade gap.
At the same time, new customs and regulatory duty changes have started from July 1, SBP reserves have moved lower compared to the previous update, and RLNG prices have increased because of costly spot LNG purchases.
Ports are still active, but businesses now need to focus even more on landed cost, import planning, customs exposure, and energy-linked cost pressure.
For importers and exporters, the message this week is simple:
Trade pressure is back in focus. Do not confirm shipments without reviewing duties, freight, fuel, energy costs, and final landed cost.
The Current Situation: Trade Deficit Hits a Four-Year High
Pakistan’s trade deficit widened to $39.47 billion in FY26, according to Business Recorder’s report based on PBS data.
This is up 21.57% compared to the previous fiscal year.
Imports rose to $69.59 billion, while exports dropped to $30.13 billion.
June was also a difficult month. The trade deficit reached $4.53 billion in June 2026, which was much higher than the $2.76 billion recorded in May.
The Breakdown:
- FY26 trade deficit: $39.47 billion
- Increase compared to FY25: 21.57%
- FY26 imports: $69.59 billion
- FY26 exports: $30.13 billion
- June 2026 trade deficit: $4.53 billion
- May 2026 trade deficit: $2.76 billion
The Reality:
This is a clear warning for businesses.
Imports are rising faster than exports, and this can create pressure on foreign exchange, import payments, freight planning, and landed cost.
For importers, the focus should be on accurate cost calculation before booking cargo.
For exporters, the focus should be on faster documentation, better shipment visibility, and stronger cost control.
Key Updates:
1. New Customs and Regulatory Duty Changes Start from July 1
The Finance Act changes are now moving from announcement to implementation.
According to the FBR’s active customs SRO list, new SROs were issued on June 30, 2026 for additional customs duty, regulatory duty, and regulatory duty on commercial import of vehicles.
These include:
- SRO 1063(I)/2026 for additional customs duty
- SRO 1064(I)/2026 for regulatory duty
- SRO 1065(I)/2026 for regulatory duty on commercial import of vehicles
A separate report by Profit by Pakistan Today said the government has capped maximum regulatory duty at 20% and reduced additional customs duty slabs from 6% to 4%, 4% to 2%, and 2% to zero, with some exceptions.
Why It Matters:
Importers should not rely on old duty calculations.
Every shipment should be checked again for:
- HS code
- Customs duty
- Additional customs duty
- Regulatory duty
- Sales tax
- Vehicle-related levies, where applicable
- Final landed cost
A tariff reduction may help some importers, but every product will be affected differently.
2. SBP Reserves Move Lower from the Previous Update
According to the State Bank of Pakistan, total liquid foreign exchange reserves stood at $22.0446 billion as of June 24, 2026.
SBP-held reserves stood at $16.5272 billion, while commercial bank reserves stood at $5.5174 billion.
This is lower than the previous reserve level used in Week 25, where total reserves stood at $22.742 billion as of June 12.
Why It Matters:
Foreign exchange reserves matter directly for trade confidence.
They affect:
- Import payments
- LC confidence
- Shipping payments
- Fuel procurement
- LNG purchases
- Exchange rate stability
The level is still above $22 billion in total reserves, but the decline means importers should continue to plan carefully.
3. Karachi Port and Port Qasim Remain Active
According to Business Recorder, Karachi Port Trust handled 165,693 tonnes of cargo in a 24-hour period ending July 3, 2026.
This included 73,885 tonnes of import cargo and 91,808 tonnes of export cargo.
Why It Matters:
Port activity remains strong, but strong port activity does not automatically mean smooth delivery.
Cargo movement still depends on customs readiness, document accuracy, payment coordination, transporter availability, and warehouse planning.
Importers and exporters should prepare before the vessel arrives, not after cargo discharge.
4. New Development at KPT: Karachi Port Rail Link Moves Into Focus
Along with active cargo movement at Karachi Port, another important development is now becoming relevant in July.
The Main Line-1 railway project is expected to begin from Karachi Port in July 2026. According to the Government of Pakistan’s Press Information Department, the plan includes upgrading the 54-kilometre railway section from KPT to Pipri to improve cargo movement from Karachi Port.
Pakistan Railways also plans to operate at least four freight trains daily within the next few months, with priority for bulk cargo transportation.
This matters because Karachi Port’s future growth cannot depend only on more berths, cranes, and vessel calls.
The port also needs stronger inland connectivity.
Better rail freight can help reduce road congestion around the port, improve cargo turnaround time, and support cheaper bulk cargo movement over time.
Why It Matters:
For importers and exporters, stronger rail connectivity from KPT can support:
- Faster port-to-inland cargo movement
- Lower pressure on trucking routes
- Better bulk cargo handling
- Improved delivery planning
- Less congestion around port roads
- Stronger long-term logistics capacity
This is a positive development for Pakistan’s supply chain, but businesses should still plan carefully.
Even with better rail connectivity, cargo movement still depends on customs readiness, documentation, payment coordination, transporter availability, and warehouse planning.
5. RLNG Prices Rise After Costly Spot LNG Purchases
Energy cost pressure has returned as a key issue.
According to Profit by Pakistan Today, OGRA increased June RLNG prices by up to nearly 16% after costly spot LNG purchases.
The report said SNGPL’s distribution price increased to $19.5228 per mmBtu, while SSGCL’s rate increased to $18.64 per mmBtu.
Why It Matters:
RLNG prices affect more than energy companies.
Higher gas costs can affect:
- Industrial production
- Cold-chain operations
- Warehousing costs
- Manufacturing margins
- Energy-intensive exports
- Overall landed cost planning
Businesses should monitor energy-linked costs along with freight and duties.
6. Fuel Prices Move Slightly Lower Again
According to Pakistan State Oil’s fuel price archive, petrol fell to Rs 297.53 per litre, while high-speed diesel fell to Rs 309.5 per litre, effective from July 4, 2026.
This gives businesses some short-term relief after the sharp fuel-price cut seen in Week 25.
Why It Matters:
Lower fuel prices help transport planning, but inland freight rates may still vary.
Rates can be affected by route conditions, transporter pricing, container availability, weather delays, and port activity.
Businesses should still confirm freight rates before finalising shipment pricing.
7. Monsoon Risk Continues During the First Week of July
Pakistan has entered the first major monsoon spell of July.
According to ReliefWeb’s monsoon flood situation update, monsoon-related incidents were reported between June 28 and July 1 in parts of Gilgit-Baltistan, Lower Chitral, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Weather risk can directly affect logistics.
Why It Matters:
Businesses should prepare for possible delays in:
- Inland transport
- Port-to-warehouse movement
- Loading and unloading
- Road movement
- Cold-chain operations
- Delivery schedules
- Warehouse operations
Importers and exporters should add weather buffers into delivery planning during the monsoon period.
What This Means for Importers and Exporters
This week shows that trade pressure is back in focus.
The FY26 trade deficit has widened sharply, new duty rules are now being implemented, and energy costs are creating fresh pressure.
At the same time, Karachi Port’s rail-link development shows that inland connectivity is becoming a bigger part of Pakistan’s logistics future.
Ports are active, and fuel prices have moved slightly lower, but businesses still need to plan carefully.
Importers and exporters should now review shipment plans with four priorities:
First, check landed cost after the new customs and regulatory duty changes.
Second, monitor KPT connectivity and inland freight options as rail development moves forward.
Third, track energy-linked costs, especially RLNG and industrial power expenses.
Fourth, prepare for monsoon-related transport and delivery delays.
Your landed cost should include freight charges, fuel surcharges, insurance, customs duties, additional customs duties, regulatory duties, sales tax, exchange rate impact, port charges, customs clearance, inland transportation, energy-linked costs, and delay or warehousing costs.
The key lesson is simple:
Trade pressure, duty changes, energy costs, port connectivity, and weather risk can all affect shipment cost.
Do not wait for cargo arrival to review your numbers.
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