Timely Insights and Key Industry Changes
Hi, it’s Faiz from Maalbardaar.
After last week’s focus on record remittances, fuel prices, port activity, and trade talks, this week’s supply chain story is moving back toward external account pressure and fuel-price volatility.
Pakistan’s FY26 current account has slipped into a small deficit after June imports increased sharply.
At the same time, the government has moved toward daily petroleum price reviews, while diesel prices have increased sharply for the July 18 to July 20 period.
Karachi Port and Port Qasim remain active, SBP reserves are still above $22 billion, and heavy monsoon rains are creating fresh flood and road-movement risks.
For importers and exporters, the message this week is simple:
External support is still there, but shipment costs can change quickly.
The Current Situation: Current Account Turns Negative as Fuel Volatility Returns
Pakistan posted a $139 million current account deficit in FY26, according to Business Recorder’s report based on SBP data.
This compares with a $1.83 billion surplus in FY25.
The main change came in June. Pakistan recorded a $649 million current account deficit in June 2026, compared with a $500 million surplus in May 2026.
The report said June imports rose to $6.14 billion, compared with $5.64 billion in May.
This means that strong remittances helped Pakistan, but higher imports, especially energy-related pressure, still pushed the full-year current account into deficit.
Why It Matters:
This is not a crisis number, but it is a warning.
Pakistan’s external account remains sensitive to imports, fuel, energy costs, and global market movement.
For businesses, this means landed cost planning must stay updated.
A shipment that looked fine two weeks ago may now need a fresh review because fuel prices, payment timing, customs exposure, and inland freight can all change the final cost.
Key Updates:
1. Government Moves Toward Daily Fuel-Price Reviews
Fuel-price planning has become more uncertain.
According to Business Recorder, the government has decided to review petroleum prices on a daily basis because of rising global oil prices and renewed Middle East tensions.
The report said OGRA will be responsible for determining petroleum prices based on international market trends.
It also said OGRA will publish benchmark rates and pricing components so consumers can better understand how fuel prices are calculated.
Why It Matters:
This is important for logistics because diesel directly affects inland freight.
If fuel prices are reviewed more often, transport pricing can also become more difficult to lock for longer periods.
Importers and exporters should now confirm:
- Inland freight validity
- Transporter pricing
- Fuel surcharge terms
- Delivery timing
- Demurrage and detention exposure
- Port-to-warehouse cost
Fuel-price uncertainty can move quickly into freight quotes.
2. Diesel Price Jumps Sharply for July 18 to July 20
The latest petroleum adjustment has created fresh cost pressure.
According to Business Recorder, high-speed diesel increased by Rs 31.05 per litre, moving from Rs 323.30 to Rs 354.35 per litre for the July 18 to July 20 period.
Petrol increased by Rs 5.44 per litre, moving from Rs 310.71 to Rs 316.15 per litre.
Why It Matters:
The diesel increase is the bigger issue for supply chains.
Diesel affects trucking rates, container movement, port-to-warehouse delivery, long-route transport, cold-chain movement, distribution cost, and final landed cost.
Businesses should not assume old inland freight rates are still valid.
Before finalising shipment pricing, importers should check updated transport cost and any fuel surcharge impact.
3. SBP Reserves Stay Above $22 Billion
Foreign exchange reserves remain an important support point.
According to the State Bank of Pakistan, total liquid foreign exchange reserves stood at $22.6755 billion as of July 10, 2026.
SBP-held reserves stood at $17.2258 billion, while commercial bank reserves stood at $5.4497 billion.
Why It Matters:
Reserves are important for trade confidence.
They support import payments, external debt payments, exchange rate stability, fuel purchases, shipping payments, and LC confidence.
The reserve position is still stronger than earlier weeks, but importers should continue to plan carefully because energy prices and current account pressure can affect external stability.
4. Karachi Port and Port Qasim Remain Active
Karachi Port and Port Qasim continued to show active cargo movement.
According to Business Recorder, Karachi Port Trust handled 177,148 tonnes of cargo in a 24-hour period ending July 16, 2026.
This included 114,052 tonnes of import cargo and 63,096 tonnes of export cargo.
Port Qasim handled 128,566 tonnes of cargo during the same reporting period, including 78,855 tonnes of import cargo and 49,711 tonnes of export cargo.
Why It Matters:
Port activity remains strong, but strong activity does not automatically mean smooth delivery.
Cargo still needs proper coordination after vessel arrival.
Businesses should prepare documents before arrival, file customs early, coordinate payments, confirm transport availability, align warehouse timing, and plan delivery schedules.
The biggest delays often happen after cargo reaches the port.
5. Flood and Heavy Rain Risk Increases Again
Weather risk has become more serious this week.
According to Radio Pakistan’s report on NDMA’s flood alert, NDMA warned of flooding in rivers, streams, and low-lying urban areas from July 19 to Thursday because of heavy monsoon rains.
The alert mentioned risks in Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, upper Punjab, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Peshawar, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Sialkot, Narowal, Lahore, Sheikhupura, Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur, and other vulnerable areas.
Why It Matters:
Flood risk can affect inland movement quickly.
Businesses should prepare for possible delays in truck movement, long-route delivery, port-to-warehouse transport, loading and unloading, cold-chain operations, delivery schedules, and warehouse operations.
Importers and exporters should add buffer time during active monsoon periods, especially for shipments moving beyond Karachi.
What This Means for Importers and Exporters
Week 29 shows that shipment planning is becoming more sensitive again.
The current account has moved into a small deficit, fuel prices are being reviewed more often, diesel has increased sharply, and heavy rain risk is rising.
At the same time, ports remain active and reserves are still supportive.
For businesses, this means the issue is not only booking freight.
The bigger issue is controlling the full landed cost before cargo arrives.
Importers and exporters should now focus on four things:
First, check inland freight after the latest diesel increase.
Second, confirm fuel surcharge terms before finalising shipment pricing.
Third, review payment timing and exchange rate impact.
Fourth, add weather buffers for inland movement and delivery.
Your landed cost should include freight charges, fuel surcharges, insurance, customs duties, additional customs duties, regulatory duties, sales tax, exchange rate impact, port charges, customs clearance, inland transportation, and possible delay or warehousing costs.
The key lesson is simple:
Fuel, freight, payment timing, and weather can change shipment cost quickly. Plan before the cargo arrives.
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